BTC/USD Price Analysis: Market Trends and Forecasts

BTC/USD (Short Position)

• Take Profit: 23,400
• Stop Loss: 24,500
• Timeline: 1-2 days

BTC/USD (Long Position)

• Buy Stop: 23,400
• Take Profit: 24,500
• Stop Loss: 22,500

The recent American job numbers, which showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.4% and the addition of over 517k jobs in January, has led to a rise in the US dollar index (DXY) by more than 1.2% to $102.8. This supports the Fed’s belief that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected, which is causing the inverse correlation between the US dollar and Bitcoin.

In the 4-hour chart of the BTC/USD trading pair, the momentum seen in the first weeks of the month has faded and the pair has entered into a consolidation phase between $22,350 and $24,269. It has formed an ascending channel and is currently above its lower side, with a slight move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair has also formed a triple-top pattern, indicating a bearish bias with the next key point to watch being at $22,340 (23.6% retracement point). The stop-loss for this trade is set at $23,400.

The daily chart provides a clearer picture of the market. The BTC/USD pair has moved above the key resistance at $21,560 (November 5 high) but has faced resistance at the 23.6% retracement point. It has also formed a cup and handle pattern, indicating that the pair is likely to retest the support at $21,560 before resuming the bullish trend and retesting the key resistance point at $25,253.

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